August 2020 HDB BTO Sales Launch - Ang Mo Kio Analysis
- Propanalytics
- Jul 30, 2020
- 7 min read
Updated: Sep 21, 2020
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Bishan 2020 BTO Analysis coming up soon
Summary
380 4RM and 5RM units will be offered in the August 2020 Ang Mo Kio BTO sales exercise near the western edge of town.
In 2020 thus far, the median resale prices of 3RM, 4RM and 5RM units in Ang Mo Kio are $272,000, $400,000 and $560,000 respectively. There seems to be a significant difference in prices between units of different lease groups.
Bigger units at the BTO launch (Yio Chu Kang Beacon), last year was heavily oversubscribed. 4RM units went for north of $451,000. That launch was near Yio Chu Kang MRT.
The data shows that the median resale price of 4RM units from newer developments like Teck Ghee Vista (2012) over 2015 - 2020, is $648,000. 3RM units from Yio Chu Kang Vista (2015) fetched a median price of $445,000 in 2019 - 2020.
Major development plans for the town include a new neighborhood up north and the Cross Island Line (CRL) that will connect to the almost ready Thomson East Coast Line stations via Bright Hill MRT which is near the August 2020 BTO launch.
Ang Mo Kio BTO August 2020 Snapshot
Source: HDB
Almost a year after getting Yio Chu Kang Beacon, Ang Mo Kio will be getting another BTO project comprising 380 4RM and 5 RM units in the western part of town. Given that Yio Chu Kang Beacon was heavily oversubscribed, one would anticipate similar response for this launch. Despite its distance from town centre, there are several amenities near-by, including 2 upcoming TEL stations (Mayflower and Bright Hill). Majority of the historical transactions in Ang Mo Kio have been for 3RM units which may suggest a lack of bigger flats in the town and this may be the reason why HDB has decided to launch only 4RM and 5RM units - to accommodate to the demand for bigger units, which was evident in the over-subscription for bigger units, in the Yio Chu Kang Beacon offering last year.
For more information, please click here.
Source: HDB
General Price Trends in Ang Mo Kio
Ang Mo Kio is one of the older estates in Singapore where a significant majority of the developments are above 40 years old (C1).
There are a few developments with fresher leases (excluding ones that have yet to transact in the resale market), in small pockets over the town - the largest of which is at Teck Ghee Vista in the southern part of the town, along Ang Mo Kio Avenue 1 (C2). We understand that this development was under the SERs scheme and units were subsequently offered in a Sales-of-Balance exercise.
As more units with remaining lease of <60 years are transacted in the coming years (C3), one may expect further downward pressure on the median prices of units in the town until newer developments come into the resale market.
Overall, while median prices of 2RM, 3RM and 4RM units have stabilized over the last year or so, 5RM and EA units continue to fall (C4). For 5RM and EA, the fall is generally led by older units with lesser remaining leases (C6).
In 2020 thus far, median resale prices of 3RM, 4RM and 5RM units are $272,000, $400,000 and $560,000 respectively (C4).
The data suggests a considerable premium for units with fresher lease. Over the last 3 years, median resale price of 4RM units with 90-94 year remaining lease was almost 60-70% higher than the median price of units with 60-69 year remaining lease (C6). The 4RM units at Teck Ghee Vista with remaining lease of >90 have been going for a median price of $649,444 so far in 2020, while equivalents with <60 year lease within 500 metres of the former have been going for about $425,000 (C5,*).
Price Trends of Comparable Units
As of July 2020, there are 2 developments in the >90 remaining lease category in Ang Mo Kio, in the resale market (C7). They are Teck Ghee Vista and Yio Chu Kang Vista, and the latter only comprises 3RM units. Teck Ghee Vista contains two groups of newer blocks, one with lease commencing in 2006 and the other in 2012. For purposes of this analysis, we will focus only on the latter.
From 2015 - 2020, 3RM, 4RM and 5RM units from Teck Ghee Vista (2012) have fetched a median price of $462,500, $648,000 and $888,000 (C9).
In the same period, median prices for 3RM units at Yio Chu Kang Vista, was about 4% lower, at $445,000 (C9).
In 2020 so far, the median price of 3RM units at Yio Chu Kang Vista is $445,000 from 14 transactions (C10).
For 3RM and 4RM units at Teck Ghee Vista, the median resale prices thus far in 2020 are $469,500 from 4 transactions and $649,444 from 12 transactions (C10).
Yio Chu Kang Vista was launched in 2011 with starting prices of $227,000 for 3RM units. This is an estimated 81-86% gain for 3RM units, if compared against the lowest ($410,000) and the 25th percentile ($422,500) prices of 3RM resale transaction from the development in 2019 and 2020 (C10,*).
We could not find sufficient information on the SBF launch prices of units at Teck Ghee Vista. If anyone has details, please comment below. We only managed to find one article where it was stated that - "For instance, a five-room SBF flat at Teck Ghee Vista completed in 2012 is being offered at $706,700". If accurate, and assuming that $706,700 was the median price for 5RM units offered in the SBF exercise, we estimate a 26% gain for 5RM units, when compared against the median ($888,000) prices of 5RM resale transaction from the development between 2015 and 2020 (C10,*).
Past Ang Mo Kio BTO Launches & Indicative Price Range
There have been 3 BTO developments in Ang Mo Kio since 2013. Yio Chu Kang Beacon was launched in 2019 while Ang Mo Kio Court and Kebun Bahru Court were launched in 2016 and 2013 respectively (C12).
The August 2020 Ang Mo Kio BTO is just next to Kebun Bahru Court (C11) so when units from the latter make their way into the resale market, they would provide a good gauge of the resale potential of the latest launch. 4RM units were launched at a starting price of $380,000 at Kebun Bahru Court in 2013 (C12).
Development Plans
A new neighborhood is planned further north at Lentor Hills, near the future Lentor MRT station. There are plans for substantial residential development in the area.
Completion of Thomson East Coast Line MRT stations at Mayflower and Bright Hill is imminent, and there are development plans for a Cross Island Line linking Ang Mo Kio to the eastern part of Singapore by the end of the decade. With the completion of all lines, Ang Mo Kio will have 3 MRT interchanges, and access to 3 lines - NSL, TEL and CRL.
Additional 16 km of dedicated cycling paths to be added near Ang Mo Kio central as part of plans to make Ang Mo Kio a "cycling and walking" town.
For more details about development plans from URA, please click here.
Pros/Cons
+
Walking distance to 2 future MRT stations on either side - Mayflower MRT and Bright Hill MRT (TEL). These were expected to be completed within the year, one should not be surprised if they are delays due to the pandemic. Once opened, residents will be connected to Orchard, Marina Bay and Marine Parade among other areas. Bright Hill is planned as an interchange connecting the TEL with the Cross Island Line (CRL). The first stage of CRL is expected to open by the end of the decade, connecting Bright Hill to Ang Mo Kio, Serangoon North, Defu, Tampines North, Pasir Ris and even Punggol when the extension is completed.
Fairly good selection of schools within the vicinity including Mayflower Secondary, Pierce Secondary, Ang Mo Kio Primary/Secondary, CHI St Nicholas, Bishan Park Primary, Anderson Primary, Ai Tong School and Eunio Junior College.
All 380 units are 4RM and 5RM, hence great for families.
Bishan-Ang Mo Kio Park and Lower Pierce Reservoir Park are close by.
Kebun Bahru Mall, Market, Food and Community Center are just a short walk away. Mayflower Market and Food Centre is further north.
May have a shorter waiting period given the size of the development.
Like Kebun Bahru Court, it will most likely be a high level development (26 storeys) hence high level units will get panoramic views.
Several shops, eateries and supermarket within walking distance
-
Far from town centre and access to the library, polyclinic, interchange, Ang Mo Kio Hub and the MRT station.
No 3RM units.
Far away from expressways.
Highly likely to be over-subscribed given demand in the last BTO in 2019 for bigger sized units.
Expected high price taking into account launch prices at Kebun Bahru 7 years ago and proximity to MRT stations from TEL.
(C"X") refers to chart number and is intended to point to the relevant chart where the data is drawn from. (*) indicates that data is from a chart that is not displayed.
HDB data was downloaded from HDB resale prices portal and data.gov.sg
Data is as at 28/07/2020, i.e whatever was made available at the 2 sources as at the stated date.
Flat age data is calculated from resale transaction data, and is unique to block + address. If a particular block + address did not have any transactions, it will not show on the map.
The mapping of postal codes may not necessarily be at pin-point accuracy. The 'dots' may be slightly off the actual block.
Please contact us if there are factual inaccuracies. We will make changes, where necessary.
Please note that are a multitude of factors that affect prices of flats (renovation, floor, location, sqf etc) and some of the analyses may not account for every factor.
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