August 2020 HDB BTO Sales Launch - Bishan Analysis
- Propanalytics
- Aug 7, 2020
- 8 min read
Updated: Oct 13, 2020
(Do subscribe if you wish to receive email updates when new articles are posted)
Tengah 2020 BTO Analysis coming up soon
Summary
470 2RM Flexi, 3R and 4R units will be offered in the August 2020 Bishan BTO sales exercise near the eastern edge of town, near Braddell Road.
In 2020 thus far, median resale prices of 3RM, 4RM and 5RM units are $346,500, $520,000 and $690,000 respectively.
2 of the biggest clusters of flats in Bishan are near Bishan-Ang Mo Kio Park and Bishan Central Town. In 2020 so far, the median prices for 4RM units in these clusters are $555,000 and $480,000 respectively
In the Central cluster, units closer to the town centre have a marked premium in price psf compared to those further away (closer to the August 2020 BTO launch).
From 2016, the data also shows a divergence in 4RM median prices of units closer to town centre, compared to those further away. The 2020 median price psf of 4RM units near to the August 2020 launch is $435 psf while $537 psf for the ones nearer to the town centre.
URAs draft master plan shows that the big plot in front of Junction 8 has been earmarked for commercial cum retail development (Bishan Sub-Regional Center). Bishan Town Centre may just be about to get significantly bigger.
Bishan BTO August 2020 Snapshot
Source: HDB
Its been almost over 2 decades since one of the most sought-after towns is getting a BTO with 3/4RM options. In 2020, Bishan will get not 1, but 2 BTO launches. Its central location and access to some of the "best schools" in the country are some, among a variety of reasons for its allure. The August 2020 BTO launch is in the eastern edge of town near Braddell Road where 470 2RM Flexi, 3R and 4R units will be offered. The plot offered in the August 2020 launch may not necessarily be as attractive as the one to be offered in November 2020, but do take into consideration the number of people who may defer this launch to compete for the November launch. This BTO still offers one a chance to stay in a much sought-after town with access to amenities that few other towns can boast about, at possibly a lower price than the upcoming November 2020 launch.
For more information, please click here.
Source: HDB
General Price Trends in Bishan
Bishan has not had a BTO, with 3/4/5RM options, for about 2 decades. Units with the freshest lease are in Bishan Heights, near Bishan Street 22. Flats here have a remaining lease of 77 years (C1).
Apart from the newest cluster (on a relative basis) near Bishan-Ang Mo Kio Park, there is a slightly older cluster near Bishan Central and a a few smaller clusters in the Shufun and Sin Ming area, in west Bishan. The flats in the Sin Ming area are among the oldest in Bishan Town (C2).
With no new developments in Bishan, a significant majority of transactions in the last 3 years have been units with 70 - 79 and 60 - 69 years of remaining lease (C3). Despite this, resale units in Bishan fetch a high price.
Median prices of 3RM, 4RM and 5RM units have dipped in the last year. Median prices of 5RM units have been falling since 2016, while 3RM and 4RM unit median prices have been relatively stable until the dip in the past year (C4).
In 2020 thus far, median resale prices of 3RM, 4RM and 5RM units are $346,500, $520,000 and $690,000 respectively (C4).
The data suggests a premium for units with fresher lease. Over the least 3 years, median resale price of 4RM units with 70-79 year remaining lease was almost 13% higher than the median price of units with 60-69 year remaining lease (C6). All the 4RM units with a remaining lease of 60 - 69 years transacted in 2020 were from the cluster near Bishan Central and clusters at Shunfu/Sin Ming, while all units with a remaining lease of 70 - 79 were from the cluster near Bishan Ang Mo Kio Park (C5). Lease may not necessarily be the only factor in such price differences though, with units near the Bishan-Ang Mo Kio Park offering its own perks (good schools, upgraded park etc).
Price Trends of Comparable Units
Median prices for 4RM units in the central cluster, nearest to the August 2020 BTO, is $480,000 thus far in 2020. Prices in this cluster have been falling since peaking in 2016. Compared to the other clusters, bar Sin Ming 2 where units have 53 years of remaining lease, median resale prices in the central cluster are lower. Comparatively, the data also suggests that median prices in the Shunfu and Sin Ming 1 area have been more resilient (C8). There are MRTs within walking distance for both these clusters - Marymount MRT/CCL and Bright Hill MRT/TEL (C7). These areas also seem to be inundated with landed houses.
The $480,000 median resale price for 4RM units in the central cluster should not be taken at face value as units nearer to the Town Centre still carry a premium. When we look at price psf against distance from Junction 8, we notice 4RM units transacted nearer to Junction 8 in 2020 command north of $550 psf while those furthest away go for under $450 psf (C9, C10). This is despite the fact that flats closer to Junction 8 are a couple of years older that those on the outskirts. We drilled down further to compare units of similar storey range and found the trend to remain.
Not surprisingly, there has been greater demand for units nearer to Bishan Town Centre (those beyond 500 metres of the August 2020 BTO). Historically, about 2/3 of 4RM transactions annually are for these units (C12).
Within the central cluster, prices for all units within 500 metres and beyond 500 metres of town centre, have historically tracked each other, but started to diverge from 2013, indicating the market puts a premium on the units closer to the town centre (C12).
In the last 3 years, 4RM units within 500 metres of the August 2020 BTO have been trending at about $450 psf. On the other hand, units closer to the town centre have been trending nearer to $550 psf (C13). This also suggests that the November Bishan BTO, closer to the existing town centre and to the upcoming Bishan Sub-Regional Centre, may have a premium compared to the August 2020 launch.
Past Bishan BTO Launches
The last BTO in Bishan, Golden Jasmine, was launched in 2006 where only 176 studio apartments were offered. Hence, there are no useful references for estimated prices, beyond resale prices in the vicinity. Even then, these are generally 30+ year old units which makes assessment of potential returns more difficult given how units with fresher leases generally command a premium in the resale market. Furthermore, the scarcity of plots within the area for more residential developments may also support higher resale prices when these units come into the resale market.
For reference, Kim Keat Ripples, launched in February 2020, further south in the adjacent town of Toa Payoh, had starting prices of $351,000 (up to $446,000) and $395,000 (up to $666,000) for 3RM and 4RM units respectively.
Development Plans
The empty plot above Junction 8 is earmarked for commercial cum retail development - Bishan Sub-Regional Center. While we have to wait for concrete plans to be announced by the government, given the size of the plot, one can expect a mega complex with office spaces and retail outlets.
The imminent completion of Thomson East Coast Line (TEL) MRT stations at Upper Thomson and Bright Hill further improves connectivity for Bishan residents. Bright Hill is also planned to be the an interchange station with the Cross Island Line (CRL).
There are plans to enhance inter-town connectivity with new walking and cycling routes to Toa Payoh and other towns along the Kallang River. Residents can also look forward to new park connectors, an upgraded underpass below CTE and a cycling bridge across PIE.
MOH has also stated on record that it has plans for the development of a polyclinic in Bishan by 2030.
For more details about development plans from URA, please click here.
Source: URA
Pros/Cons
+
Several schools, including top schools, in town including Raffles Institution, Raffles Girls, Kuo Chuan Presbyterian Primary/Secondary, Guanyang Primary/Secondary Ai Tong Primary, Catholic High and Eunoia Junior College.
Several pre-schools in the vicinity (My World, PCF Hampton, PAP Community Foundation, Star Learners, Juniorland Child).
Wet market, coffee shops, small neighborhood supermarkets and other daily necessities shops across the road.
Bishan-Ang Mo Kio Park and Macritchie Park are nearby.
Right next to a park connector which leads to Bishan-Ang Mo Kio Park and other towns along the Kallang River.
10 min bus ride to Bishan Central for access to Bishan Community Club, Junction 8, Bishan Library, Bishan MRT (NSL and CCL).
Bishan Sports Hall, Stadium, Swimming Complex can be reached via the park connector.
Quick access to CTE for drivers.
Opening of 2 more MRT stations in Bishan - Mayflower MRT and Bright Hill MRT (TEL). These are expected to be completed within the year providing residents with greater connectivity. Once completed, 4 MRT lines will run through the town - NSL, CCL, TEL and CRL.
-
Further from town centre compared to the November 2020 BTO
Beside a busy road hence noise and dust could be an issue for units facing the road
Majority of the flats in Bishan were built in the 1980s/90s. Since then, Bishan has not had a BTO with 3/4/5 RM units and thus this will highly likely be over-subscribed given what Bishan as a town has to offer. Still, the launch of 2 BTOs in the same year, with the 'better' one as the second launch, puts potential subscribers into a dilemma - apply for this and miss out on a bigger development with a more attractive location or give up on this and take a risk by competing with many others in the 2nd launch.
Expected high price but still will likely be cheaper than the November 2020 BTO.
Join us in our telegram channel to get our weekly article updates - https://t.me/propanalytics
(C"X") refers to chart number and is intended to point to the relevant chart where the data is drawn from. (*) indicates that data is from a chart that is not displayed.
DBSS units were excluded in the analysis.
HDB data was downloaded from HDB resale prices portal and data.gov.sg
Data is as at 05/08/2020, i.e whatever was made available at the 2 sources as at the stated date.
Flat age data is calculated from resale transaction data, and is unique to block + address. If a particular block + address did not have any transactions, it will not show on the map.
The mapping of postal codes may not necessarily be at pin-point accuracy. The 'dots' may be slightly off the actual block.
Please contact us if there are factual inaccuracies. We will make changes, where necessary.
Please note that are a multitude of factors that affect prices of flats (renovation, floor, location, sqf etc) and some of the analyses may not account for every factor.
The material and information contained on this post is for general information purposes only. You should not rely upon the material or information on the post as a basis for making any business, legal, financial or any other decisions. Whilst we endeavor to keep the information accurate, we make no representations or guarantees of any kind, express or implied about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the post, or the information, including graphics contained, for any purpose. Any reliance you place on the material is therefore strictly at your own risk.
All content and images used on this site are owned by Propanalytics and for use on sgpropanalytics.com only. Unauthorized use is prohibited.
Comments