Bishan Analysis/ Review in 5 Visuals - November 2020 HDB BTO Sales Launch
- Propanalytics
- Oct 27, 2020
- 9 min read
Updated: Nov 19, 2020
Article Content
1. November 2020 Sales Launch Overview
2. Flat Location in Town by Lease
3. Overall Town Price Trends by Location & Lease
4. Price Comparison with Units in Close Proximity to November BTO
5. Further Analysis of Central Cluster
6. BTO Launch History by Location & Median Launch Prices
7. Development Plans for Town
8. Pros & Cons
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Summary
In 2020 thus far, the median resale price of 4RM units in Bishan is $520,000/ $504 psf while the median resale price of 5RM units is $698,000/ $528 psf.
Flats near the November 2020 BTO have a remaining lease of 65 - 69 years and in 2020 thus far, the median resale prices of 4RM/ 5RM units from these flats are $550,000/ $582 psf and $800,000/ $594 psf respectively.
Prior to the August 2020 BTO launch, Bishan has not had a BTO project for over a decade.
In the last BTO launch, 4RM units at Bishan Towers were launched at a median price of $550 psf compared to resale prices in the vicinity of about $450 psf. Given that resale prices of units comparable to the November 2020 launch are in the region of $550 psf, we should not be surprised to see median prices in the range of $600 - 650 psf.
URAs draft master plan shows that the big plot in front of Junction 8 has been earmarked for commercial cum retail development (Bishan Sub-Regional Center).
If you missed out on both BTOs but wish to stay in Bishan for relatively affordable prices, explore the area south-east of town, along Braddell Road or the Sin Ming region.
It probably doesn't get better than this.
November 2020 Sales Launch Overview
1,500 2RM Flexi, 3RM and 4RM units will be offered in Bishan in the November 2020 BTO sales exercise. The last BTO launch in Bishan was in August this year. Prior to that, Bishan has not seen a sales launch for over a decade. In the August 2020 sales launch exercise, Bishan Towers was oversubscribed 4 and 6.2 times for 4RM and 5RM units respectively. The site is located just north of Braddell Road, next to the CTE. For first timers, 3RM units were oversubscribed by a more modest 1.7 times, while 4RM units were oversubscribed by 4 times. The November 2020 launch site is nearer to the town centre so we expect subscription rates to be significantly higher.
For more information, please click here (TBC).
Source: HDB
Flat Location in Town by Lease
Majority of the flats in Bishan commenced their lease in the 1990s. As of 2020, the oldest group of flats with remaining leases of under 60 years are located along Sin Ming Road, while those with remaining leases of 70 - 79, which are the newest batch of resale flats in the market, are located along Bishan Street 22 in a development called Bishan Heights (C1, C2).
Naturally so, majority of the resale transactions over the last few years involve units with remaining lease of 60 - 69 years. In 2020 thus far, out of 206 transactions, 124 have been for units a remaining lease of 60 - 69 years, while 76 have been for units with remaining lease of 70 - 79 years (C3). Despite the lack of fresher lease flats in Bishan, units continue to fetch high prices.
Overall Town Price Trends by Location & Lease
In 2020 thus far, the median resale price of 4RM units in Bishan is $520,000/ $504 psf. Prices peaked in 2017 where the median resale price of 4RM units was $560,000/ $537 psf and subsequently dropped to $520,000/ $503 psf in 2020 (C5a).
Based on transactions in 2020, the price difference between units in different lease categories is minimal. Even the spread of transactions in both lease categories is similar (C6a). Locations with a transacted median price of $550 psf are generally from the area near town centre, along Bishan-Ang Mo Kio Park, at Bishan Heights along Bishan St 22 and even along Sin Ming Avenue (C4a).
Some of the cheaper transactions have taken place along Braddell Road to the south and the area around Upper Thomson to the west of town.
For the units in the 70 -79 lease categories, some of the top transactions have been for units on very high floors, while for the units in the 60- 69 lease category, some of the highest transacted units do not come from necessarily high floor units. The view along the park is amongst the best in town (C6a).
In 2020 thus far, the median resale price of 5RM units in Bishan is $698,000/ $528 psf. Prices peaked in 2017 where the median resale price of 5RM units was $750,000/ $559 psf and subsequently dropped to $698,000/ $528 psf in 2020 (C5b).
Some of the more expensive 5RM transactions in 2020 are for units located near Bishan Town Centre, along Bishan-Ang Mo Kio Park and at Bishan Heights. On the other hand, cheaper 5RM transactions are for units south-east to Bishan Town Centre and in the Sin Ming area. The cheaper units have gone for under $500 psf, while the more expensive units have gone for as high as $650 psf (C4b).
If you are unable to get the BTO, and die-die want to stay in Bishan, the visuals above (2a/ 2b) will give you a better sense of prices/ leases to help you make a decision based on your preferences.
Price Comparison with Units in Close Proximity to November BTO
Resale flats nearest to the November 2020 BTO are east and south to Bishan MRT/ Town Centre. All of these flats have remaining lease periods of 65 - 69 years. (C7).
In 2020 thus far, the median resale prices of 4RM/ 5RM units from these flats are $550,000/ $582 psf and $800,000/ $594 psf respectively (C8, C9).
Unlike most towns that suffered price falls from 2013, 4RM units near the November 2020 BTO site have held steady. 5RM units witnessed a steady decline since 2013 but a sharp reversal in 2020 propelled median prices to new all time highs (C8, C9). Larger flats in mature estates are increasingly becoming a prized possession due to the lack of 5RM BTO units.
Further Analysis of Central Cluster
The large cluster of resale flats around Bishan Town Centre warrants further examination. In 2020 thus far, 44 4RM units have been transacted in this area. Visual 4 shows you the locations of all 44 transactions. Note that some locations/ blocks may have multiple transactions hence the smaller number of points on the map.
In the map above, the median price psf for the transacted units in these flats ranged from $412 psf to $633 psf. In 2020 thus far, flats nearer to the Town Centre commanded median prices north of $500 psf, with some even touching $600 psf. While locations further out, nearer to the August 2020 Bishan BTO, fetched median prices in the low $400 psf (C10).
For the price conscious amongst us, if you happen to miss this BTO and the August launch but wish to live in Bishan, the outskirts may be an area worth exploring.
BTO Launch History by Location & Median Launch Prices
The last BTO project, Bishan Towers, was launched earlier this year where 4RM units were priced between $484,000 and $617,000, with the median unit going for about $550,000. Bishan Towers is located in the south-eastern part of Bishan, along Braddell Road. While BTOs in Bishan are a prized asset, and one would 'kill' to get their hands on any, Bishan Towers pales in comparison to the November 2020 launch. Not only is it nearer to Town Centre and key amenities, unlike the August launch it is also not beside a busy road that could potentially be a source of noise pollution/dust for residents.
From our analysis of the central cluster of resale transactions in Visual 3, we notice that resale units further away from town centre, nearer to the August 2020 launch, are generally cheaper. Bishan Towers was launched at a median of $550 psf compared to the median price of about $450 psf for resale transactions in its vicinity. If units near the November 2020 BTO (which share similar lease remaining periods) are going for north of $550 psf, it should not surprise anyone if units are launched at a price north of $600 psf. Perhaps touching $650 psf.
Development Plans for Town
Source: URA
The empty plot above Junction 8 is earmarked for commercial cum retail development - Bishan Sub-Regional Center. Given the massive size of the plot, one can expect a mega complex with office spaces and retail outlets.
The imminent completion of Thomson East Coast Line (TEL) MRT stations at Upper Thomson and Bright Hill further improves connectivity for Bishan residents. Bright Hill is also planned to be the an interchange station with the Cross Island Line (CRL).
There are plans to enhance inter-town connectivity with new walking and cycling routes to Toa Payoh and other towns along the Kallang River. Residents can also look forward to new park connectors, an upgraded underpass below CTE and a cycling bridge across PIE.
MOH has also stated on record that it has plans for the development of a polyclinic in Bishan by 2030.
For more details about development plans from URA, please click here.
Pros & Cons
Much closer to Town Centre compared to the August BTO launch. You possibly can't get any closer (but never say never). URAs master plan doesn't reveal any reserved plot in the vicinity for residential development. This could influence resale prices of both BTO launches with fresher leases in Bishan, especially the November launch which is as good as it gets.
Just as a proxy, if you look at Charts C4a and C4b in our November 2020 Tampines BTO Analysis, you would notice that units with fresher leases further out from Town Centre commanded a significant premium, even when compared to older units near Town Centre. Lease seems to have a greater impact on price than location. If older resale units in Bishan already command high value, one can only imagine what these units will be priced at when MOP is completed.
The BTO will literally be next to the Regional Centre.
Short walk to Bishan MRT (NSL, CCL).
Opening of 2 more MRT stations in Bishan - Mayflower MRT and Bright Hill MRT (TEL). These are expected to be completed within the year providing residents with greater connectivity. Once completed, 4 MRT lines will run through the town - NSL, CCL, TEL and CRL.
Junction 8, public library, coffee shops, supermarkets, movie theatre and many retail outlets, including several mom and pop shops within walking distance.
Unlike the August BTO, not beside a busy road.
Several schools, including some of the top schools in Singapore, in town - Raffles Institution, Raffles Girls, Kuo Chuan Presbyterian Primary/Secondary, Guanyang Primary/Secondary Ai Tong Primary, Catholic High and Eunoia/Raffles Junior College.
Bishan-Ang Mo Kio Park and Macritchie Park are nearby.
Right next to a park connector which leads to Bishan-Ang Mo Kio Park and other towns along the Kallang River.
Bishan Sports Hall, Stadium, Swimming Complex can be reached via the park connector.
Short drive to CTE for motorists.
One of 2 BTOs launched in Bishan in decades
High level units will enjoy panoramic views.
Will be more expensive than the August 2020 BTO which was launched at a median price of 550,000 (4RM). And expect this to be heavily oversubscribed.
With an additional 1,500 units, the area will become more dense. With only two lanes to support vehicular movement, there may be congestion issues. Not a showstopper obviously, but worth noting.
No 5RM units for bigger families.
View of depot not really that enticing, especially for lower floor units.
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