Sembawang Analysis/ Review in 6 Visuals - November 2020 HDB BTO Sales Launch
- Propanalytics
- Oct 8, 2020
- 7 min read
Updated: Nov 26, 2020
Article Content
1. November 2020 Sales Launch Overview
2. Flat Location in Town by Lease
3. Overall Town Price Trends by Location & Lease
4. Price Comparison with Units in Close Proximity to November BTO
5. Potential Profit vs Similar BTO Projects in Town
6. BTO Launch History by Location & Median Launch Prices
7. Development Plans for Town
8. Pros & Cons
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Summary
In 2020 thus far, the median resale price of 4RM units in Sembawang is $355,000/ $350 psf while the median resale price of 5RM units is $410,000/ $339 psf.
Flats near the November 2020 BTO have a remaining lease of 78 years and in 2020 thus far, the median resale prices of 4RM/ 5RM units from these flats are $360,000/ $333 psf and $438,000/ $334 psf respectively.
4RM units that have completed their MOPs recently have seen profit margins of about 60%, bar units from Montreal Ville, which had an uncharacteristically high median launch price of $282,500 for a 4RM unit back in 2011.
The November 2020 BTO is located in an enviable location with several key facilities in town like Sun Plaza, Sembawang and Canberra MRT Stations, Sembawang Shopping Centre, Canberra Plaza, Bukit Canberra Integrated Hub and Canberra Community Club, just a short walk away.
November 2020 Sales Launch Overview
Source: HDB
720 2RM Flexi, 3RM, 4RM and 5RM units will be offered in the Sembawang plot in the November 2020 BTO sales exercise. Unlike most recent launches in Sembawang, this BTO is located pretty much in the middle of all key facilities in town, and we think this may be a one to watch. The last BTO launch in Sembawang, Canberra Vista in February 2020, was oversubscribed 6 and 10 times for 4RM and 5RM/3GEN units respectively. Click here to find out more.
For more information, please click here (TBC).
Source: HDB
Flat Location in Town by Lease
A vast majority of flats in Sembawang commenced their lease in the late 1990s/ early 2000s. Many of the older flats, with remaining leases of between 77 - 79 years are located in the southern part of town, just north of the November 2020 BTO (C1, C2).
Some of the newer flats in Sembawang that have recently completed their MOPs can be found in the north-western and eastern parts of town (C2).
A spike in proportion of resale transactions involving units with fresher leases is noticed in 2019/2020 perhaps highlighting a greater interest for these types of units in town (C3).
Overall Town Price Trends by Location & Lease
In 2020 thus far, the median resale price of 4RM units in Sembawang is $355,000/ $350 psf and on a 3 year uptrend. Prices peaked in 2013 where the median resale price of 4RM units was $435,000/ $429 psf and subsequently dropped to a low of $335,000/ $332 psf in 2018 (C5a).
The most expensive 4RM units in town are those with remaining lease of 90 - 94 years. They are trending at a median resale price of $404,000/ $406 psf, while those with remaining leases of 70 - 79 years are fetching a median price of $351,000/ $327 psf in 2020 (C6a).
In 2020 thus far, the median resale price of 5RM units in Sembawang is $410,000/ $339 psf and on a 3 year uptrend. Prices peaked in 2013 where the median resale price of 4RM units was $495,000/ $405 psf and subsequently dropped to a low of $388,000/ $322 psf in 2018 (C5b).
There are no 5RM units in Sembawang in the 90 - 94 years remaining lease category.
Some of the more expensive 5RM transactions are for units along Sembawang Way. In 2020, units in this area have on average fetched close to $400 psf. Units further out, on the outskirts of town, can go for as low as $300 psf. (C4b).
The difference in median prices of units from both lease remaining groups (80 - 89 years and 70 - 79 years) is minimal. Majority of the units transacted in 2020 are those with remaining lease of 80 - 89 years and they are scattered all over town, while those in the 70 - 79 years category are generally concentrated nearer to the town centre. Furthermore, most of units in the 70 - 79 years remaining lease category are bigger units which could explain why the median resale price of units in this category has been marginally higher despite a lower price psf. (C6b).
Price Comparison with Units in Close Proximity to November BTO
The flats near the November 2020 BTO are pretty close to the town centre (Sun Plaza/ Sembawang MRT). Separated only by a road (Sembawang Ave) most of these flats in green above have a remaining lease of 78 years (C7).
In 2020 thus far, the median resale prices of 4RM/5RM units from these flats are $360,000/$333 psf. and $438,000/$334 psf. respectively (C8, C9).
Interesting to note that while 5RM prices in Sembawang fell peak-to-trough between 2013 – 2018 (C5B), the units in green, near the town centre, bucked the trend from 2015 onwards. Prices here were rather resilient and stabilized quickly within the range of $430,000 – $450,000 (C9).
Potential Profit vs Similar BTO Projects in Town
Recent developments that have completed their MOPs are Sembawang Riverlodge, Montreal Ville and Montreal Dale. Leases for these developments commenced in 2015 and they have recently completed their MOPs (C10). None of these developments offered 5RM units. The average 4RM unit in these developments have seen profits of 58%, 40% and 61% respectively (C11). This was shared in an article we posted recently. Given that resale units in Sembawang generally command a lower price vis-a-vis other towns, the launch price of the BTO will be key in determining what one can expect to make.
BTO Launch History by Location & Median Launch Prices
There is major residential development east of Canberra MRT where almost a dozen projects are being developed (C13).
Aside from Canberra Vista, which was launched in 2020 and where 4RM units and 5RM units cost a median of $296,000 and $378,000 (understandably so since it's right beside the MRT), BTO prices in Sembawang have been generally very stable, ranging from $260,000 - $270,000 for 4RM units and $350,000 - $360,000 for 5RM units since 2013 (C14).
Sunbreeze is the closest to the November 2020 BTO. Launched in 2014 together with Sun Natura, Sunbreeze only offered 4RM units and had a median price of $268,000 (C13,C14).
Development Plans for Town
Source: SportSG
Bukit Canberra, a 12-hectare integrated hub incorporated within a lush environment, will have a hawker centre, indoor and outdoor sport facilities, a polyclinic, a senior care centre, green spaces for community farming and lifestyle related amenities. Best of all, it is located within 500m of the November 2020 BTO. The hub is slated to open in the 2nd half of 2020. For more details on Bukit Canberra, please click here.
A park connector will be running along the edge of the development, giving bikers/joggers direct access to Sembawang Park, Sembawang Hot Spring Park, Lower Seletar Reservoir/ Springleaf Nature Park. There are also plans to have a park integrated with Bukit Canberra. For more details on park connectors, please click here.
More residential developments are planned south of the November 2020 BTO and west of the Canberra MRT.
Given the flurry of residential developments, road improvements have been planned for better connectivity.
The North South Corridor will run through Sembawang, just a few hundred metres west of the November 2020 BTO site, linking the Northern and Central parts of Singapore. It will intersect with Seletar Expressway (SLE), Pan Island Expressway (PIE) and East Coast Parkway (ECP). For more details, please click here.
Some industrial developments south of town.
For more information, please click here.
Pros & Cons
Town Centre, with Sun Plaza, Sembawang MRT, and the upcoming Bukit Canberra integrated hub is a short walk away. The latter will house a hawker centre, polyclinic and many sports facilities bringing many more more amenities closer to residents.
Sembawang Shopping Centre, that has Giant supermarket amongst many other shops, is just across the road. A further walk down will bring them to the newest of malls in Sembawang, Canberra Plaza.
The location of the BTO means residents have relatively easy access to all key facilities in town (2 MRTs, Integrated Hub, Sun Plaza, Sembawang Shopping Centre and Canberra Plaza)
Several schools are accessible (Sembawang Pri/Sec, Canberra Pri/Sec, Wellington Pri, Ahmad Ibrahim Sec).
For nature lovers and fitness enthusiasts, access to several parks (Sembawang Hot Springs) via connectors will be a plus.
Canberra Vista was launched in February 2020, where the median 4RM unit cost about $296,000. The project was right next to Canberra MRT. This project may be cheaper because its further from the MRT and if we use other historical launch prices as a proxy. However, given the slew of developments in town, low BTO prices may soon be a thing of the past in Sembawang.
Empty plots on the left means some stacks may have a clear view, at least tentatively.
Opening of North South corridor in 2026 will reduce travel time to CBD to 30 minutes for motorists.
The November BTO is one of the projects nearer to Sembawang Air Base, hence noise may be a concern.
Sembawang can expect to become increasingly more dense, given the developments - especially given the imminent influx of people from the dozen of residential projects that are currently being built.
For motorists, the nearest expressway (SLE) is still a drive away. Until the North South corridor comes up, some motorists may find it a wee bit inconvenient.
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